What's the best guess for the stock price in 1-2 years?
Investors fix targets for most stocks by estimating future earnings per share and then applying a price-to-earnings "multiple", also known as the P/E ratio. Companies with the most consistent earnings history or strongest growth prospects receive the highest P/E multiples. We calculate price targets for the current and next fiscal year by applying the stock's current multiple to the average professional analyst's estimate.
Valuation using Chevron 's current multiple (P/E):
| Fiscal Year
| Est Low/High Price Range
| Avg. Est. Price
| % Change for Average
|
| 12/2009 |
53.15-69.66 |
61.92 |
-22.25% |
| 12/2010 |
70.30-123.84 |
97.27 |
22.13% |
| Chevron current price: |
79.64 |
| Chevron current multiple (P/E): |
12.90 |
| |
| Chevron average 12/2009 estimate: |
4.80 |
| |
Chevron low 12/2009 estimate: |
4.12 |
| |
Chevron high 12/2009 estimate: |
5.40 |
| Chevron average 12/2010 estimate: |
7.54 |
| |
Chevron low 12/2010 estimate: |
5.45 |
| |
Chevron high 12/2010 estimate: |
9.60 |
What's the best guess for the stock if it were valued like its peers?
Investors often come to believe that a stock is undervalued or overvalued compared to other stocks in its industrial group. To calculate an alternate target price for the current and next fiscal year based on those beliefs, investors can apply the average PE multiple for a company's industrial group to the average professional analyst's earnings estimate for the company in those periods.
Valuation using the industry's current multiple (P/E):
| Fiscal Year
| Est. Price
| % Change
|
| 12/2009 |
83.04 |
4.27% |
| 12/2010 |
130.44 |
63.79% |
| Chevron current price: |
79.64 |
| Major Integrated Oil & Gas group current multiple (P/E): |
17.30 |
| |
| Chevron average 12/2009 analyst estimate: |
4.80 |
| Chevron average 12/2010 analyst estimate: |
7.54 |
Investors estimate the level of unanimity about a stock's prospects among analysts by calculating the range between the most optimistic and most pessimistic estimates.
- Average number of analysts covering Chevron : 12
- Chevron analysts' high/low spread: 54%
- Chevron analysts' confidence: Low
| 
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