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Extra
How high will the Fed go?
The 9th interest rate increase in a year was widely expected to be the last, but it's unlikely to be. Here's how you can expect credit cards, car loans and mortgages to react.
By MSN Money news services
Despite high energy prices, economic activity is still sturdy, Federal Reserve policymakers say, signaling they will keep boosting interest rates higher this year to keep inflation under control.
Chairman Alan Greenspan and his colleagues raised the federal funds rate by one-quarter percentage point to 3.25% on Thursday. The action represented the ninth increase of that size since the central bank began to tighten credit in June 2004.
In response, commercial banks began lifting their prime lending rates, which are used for many short-term consumer loans, by a corresponding amount to 6.25%. The increases left both the prime rate and the funds rate at the highest levels since August 2001.
The Fed repeated a pledge it has been making for the past year to move rates up "at a pace that is likely to be measured." To analysts that phrase translates into additional quarter-point increases at the Fed's next meeting, Aug. 9, and through much of this year.
"Clearly they have more work to do," said Mark Vitner, senior economist at Wachovia.
The Fed is on autopilot
Even after its string of increases, the Federal Reserve indicated that rates still remain relatively low. In Fed parlance, that was stated as: "The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative."
Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group, pointed to that phrase as another signal that rates were headed higher. "The Fed is on autopilot," Hoffman said. "I think the Fed gave a pretty crystal clear indication that they will keep on raising rates."
Some economists believe the federal funds rate could climb to as high as 4.25% by the end of this year. That would push the prime rate to 7.25%.
"With growth remaining strong, the Fed can and must concentrate on keeping inflation in check," said Joel Naroff, president of Naroff Economic Advisors.
"There were many who were of the belief that the Fed would start to signal an end to the rate hike program. Those hopes were dashed as (Fed policymakers) made it clear that they intended to stay the course," he said.
No worries about oil, inflation
From the Fed's standpoint, high energy prices -- for now -- don't seem to be posing a threat to the economy that would change the monetary strategy, analysts said. Oil prices set a closing high of $60.54 a barrel on Monday but have retreated since.
"Although energy prices have risen further, the expansion remains firm and labor market conditions continue to improve gradually," the Fed policymakers said in a statement issued after their two-day meeting ended Thursday.
At its previous meeting, May 3, the policymakers had said consumer and business spending had slowed somewhat, partly because of rising energy prices. They didn't make this observation in Thursday's statement.
The economy grew at a solid rate of 3.8% in the first three months of this year. The unemployment rate dipped to a low 5.1% in May, though payroll growth slowed.
On the inflation front, the Federal Reserve said price pressures have "stayed elevated" but repeated the belief that longer-term inflation expectations "remain well contained." Policymakers didn't mention, as they had in previous statements, that "pricing power is more evident," meaning it was easier for companies to raise prices.
While consumer prices -- the government's most closely watched inflation gauge -- rose sharply in March and April, they actually fell in May.
Some economists believed the Fed's comments Thursday on inflation and the economy were a bit more upbeat compared with the May meeting.
Mortgages still getting cheaper
Before the Fed embarked on its rate-raising campaign, the prime rate stood at 4%, the lowest level since 1958; the federal funds rate, the interest banks charge each other on overnight loans, was at 1%, a 46-year low.
Extraordinarily low rates had once been needed to rescue the economy from the 2001 recession, the Sept. 11 terror attacks and a wave of corporate scandals that had rocked Wall Street. But the Fed over the past year has been gradually reining in the easy credit, an approach aimed at preventing inflation from becoming a problem while keeping the economy growing.
Despite the Fed's rate increases thus far, long-term interest rates, including those for mortgages, have fallen, a phenomenon that Greenspan has said is puzzling. Rates on 30-year mortgages this week sank to 5.53%, the lowest level in more than a year.
When the Fed increases interest rates, it doesn't ripple evenly through the economy. Different interest-rate-related products will behave in different ways leading up to, and in response to, a Fed-rate increase. Below is a look at how soon each product category will reflect the Fed's June 30 rate increase.
Fixed-rate mortgages: Fixed mortgage rates are closely tied to long-term government bond yields and are not directly tied to Fed interest rate moves. Case in point, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dropped from 6.3% when the Fed began raising rates June 30, 2004, to 5.61% as of June 29, 2005. Fixed mortgage rates and long-term bond yields have reversed an increase that was seen in February and March and are close to the lowest levels of the year. Inconsistent economic data and strong demand for U.S. assets, by savings-rich overseas investors, have kept fixed mortgage rates in the "refinancing zone" for homeowners. It is a great time to swap out of the adjustable and interest-only products that are so sensitive to rising interest rates and lock down low, fixed-rate financing while the opportunity still exists. While fixed mortgage rates will continue to move in accordance with the economic outlook, and not necessarily in relation to the interest rate moves by the Fed, there is no assurance they will remain this low.
Adjustable-rate mortgages: Rates on ARMs are primarily tied to short-term indexes, such as LIBOR, the one-year Treasury or the 11th District Cost of Funds. As the Fed boosts short-term interest rates, ARMs are far more sensitive after the fact than fixed-rate mortgages. For borrowers facing rate adjustments, the relevant comparison is the current level of the underlying index, plus the loan's margin, vs. the initial start rate. As short-term interest rates rise, this contrast will expand and lead to some unpleasant rate adjustments for borrowers who took out ARMs at record-low interest rates. Consider a one-year ARM taken out in June 2004 when the prevailing national average was 4.4%. Now facing the first rate adjustment, with the one-year Treasury yield currently 3.37% and a loan margin of 2.5%, the rate could jump to 5.87%. For a buyer who borrowed $200,000 one year ago, the monthly payment increases by $176. Further interest rate increases mean the borrower is likely to face another increase next year. By contrast, a borrower taking out a 5/1 ARM at the current average rate of 5.2% is insulated from any rate increases for the first five years. ARMs typically have a periodic cap that keeps the rate from rising more than 2 percentage points at one adjustment, but some ARMs permit the first rate adjustment to be as high as 5 percentage points. It is important for borrowers using ARMs to consider the impact on their monthly payments once the interest rate adjustments begin.
Home equity loans: Rates for home equity loans are fixed, and any changes in rates do not impact existing borrowers. Small, short-term home equity loans are often tied to the prime rate, which moves in close concert with Fed interest-rate hikes. For these loans, locking in rates sooner, rather than later, will insulate borrowers from higher rates. But most borrowers taking home equity loans are borrowing a significant amount of money and repaying it over a 10- or 15-year period. Rates on these products will track more closely to long-term interest rates, much like fixed-rate mortgages. Since Bankrate.com began surveying $30,000 home equity loans in July 2004, the average home equity loan rate has only increased slightly, from 6.99% to 7.09%. Locking in a rate now will prevent the regret of seeing higher rates later, either due to continued Fed interest-rate hikes or a rise in long-term interest rates.
Home equity lines of credit, or HELOCs: Since Bankrate.com began surveying $30,000 lines of credit in July 2004, the average HELOC rate has increased from 4.71% to 6.24%. Variable-rate HELOCs will continue to increase for existing and new borrowers alike. Lenders will be quick to reprice HELOCs on the heels of the Fed's rate hike, with most borrowers noticing the higher rates within one or two statement cycles. HELOC rates will continue to closely mimic moves in the prime rate. The impact on monthly payments will be modest for borrowers in the early years of a HELOC where the required payment consists only of interest. Be wary, however, of accumulating a large balance in the interest-only years that will have to be paid off at potentially higher interest rates in the repayment period.
Credit cards: Variable-rate credit cards typically move in direct response to Fed interest rate action, as most are tied to the prime rate. However, there can be a lag of up to three months between an interest rate hike and a credit card repricing, as issuers reprice their cards on a monthly or quarterly basis. Since the last Fed interest-rate increase on May 3, the average standard variable-rate card has climbed from 13.16% to 13.4% and the average variable-rate card among the standard, gold and platinum classes has surged from 11.87% to 12.16%. Of course, cardholders with less-than-perfect credit can expect to pay even higher rates and will also see rates continue to climb. Even fixed-rate credit cards are potentially sensitive to rising rates, as issuers can change the terms with as little as 15 days' notice. This can mean one of two things: The issuer could reprice the card to a higher fixed rate, or the issuer could switch the card from a fixed-rate to a variable-rate card that would respond much more quickly to subsequent interest rate increases. The switch from fixed- to variable-rate appears to be the direction that most issuers are taking at this time, with the average fixed-rate card remaining largely unchanged since the last Fed rate hike. The bottom line to cardholders -- a fixed-rate credit card is not a haven from higher rates.
Auto loans: Rates for new- and used-car loans are fixed-rate loans and will only impact new borrowers, not existing borrowers. Much of the impact of an interest rate hike is seen before a Fed move, as car loans are increasingly responding to yields on Treasury securities instead of being pegged to the prime rate. This is because lenders are packaging auto loans together and selling them into the secondary market, as is often done with mortgages. The good news for borrowers is that even though short-term interest rates have increased considerably, yields on Treasury securities have increased much more modestly. Even though the prime rate has increased from 4% to 6% in the past year, the average three-year Treasury yield has only increased from 3.25% to 3.65%. Accordingly, the average four-year new-car-loan rate has increased from 7.43% one year ago to 7.84% now. The average three-year used-car-loan rate has moved only slightly higher, from 8.46% to 8.53% in the same period of time. At credit unions, the average rates have nudged higher from 5.35% to 5.49% on new cars and from 5.5% to 5.66% on used cars.
Certificates of deposit: Yields on certificates of deposit move with yields on Treasury securities of a similar maturity, as they compete for individual investors' dollars. Longer-term CDs, such as the five-year CD, typically move well in advance of a Fed interest-rate move. But what is typical doesn't always happen, and in this instance, yields on five-year instruments have not improved appreciably during the past year as the Fed has repeatedly boosted short-term interest rates. The average five-year CD yield is currently 3.73%, compared to 3.6% one year ago. Yields on three-month and six-month CDs increase in closer concert with actual Fed moves, and have been increasing steadily since the first rate hike in June 2004. The average three-month and six-month CD yields are now 1.92% and 2.38%, up from 0.89% and 1.08%, respectively, on June 30 of last year. The expectation of additional interest rate moves this summer should propel CD yields to higher levels. Investors should keep an eye on inflation and continue to favor shorter maturities that facilitate reinvesting into longer maturities as yields improve.
Money market accounts, or MMAs: Yields on money market accounts are closely tied to what the Fed does with short-term interest rates. But not all banks will be eager to reward depositors with better returns. The largest banks that dominate in many markets around the country have been very stingy about increasing money market payouts. As a result, the average money market account yield for the minimum required deposit has shown scant improvement in the past year, rising from 0.45% to 0.67%. Money market accounts requiring higher initial deposits have fared only slightly better, with the average yield on a $10,000 minimum investment rising from 0.64% to 0.97% in the same period of time. For deposits of $100,000, the average yield of 1.46% is up from 0.91% one year ago. All remain well below the prevailing rate of inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index: 2.8% in the 12-month period ending in May. For better returns and a better shot at keeping pace with inflation, see Bankrate.com's highest-yielding money market accounts, where banks have been actively increasing yields as a result of the rising rate environment.
Money market mutual funds, or MMMFs: Yields on money market funds have been increasing steadily since the first Fed rate hike in June 2004 and will continue to do so on the heels of the ninth rate hike on June 30. It may take nearly three months before the rate hike is completely reflected in money fund yields as short-term investments within the fund mature and are then reinvested at the now-higher rates. Even though money fund yields have been increasing since the Fed started boosting short-term rates last summer, the best-yielding money market mutual funds still fall well short of the highest-yielding bank money market deposit accounts. Money funds often require higher initial deposits and have a higher minimum for check writing than is found on the highest-yielding money market deposit accounts.
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