Jubak's Journal
Recent articles:
• 5 stocks for the coming technology rally, 10/5/2004
• 5 great, cheap growth stocks and a tool to find more, 10/1/2004
• 5 retailers ready for the holidays, 9/29/2004
More...
| | Jubak's Journal
My CNBC stock picks
Here's how the stocks I've mentioned on my weekly CNBC appearances have fared this year.
By Jim Jubak
Every week, just about, I go on CNBCs "Morning Call" and recommend three stocks that I think will outperform the market for the next six months. (I post another two recommendations exclusively for readers of CNBC.Com on MSN Money on the Web site on the morning of that TV appearance.)
I think viewers and readers alike are entitled to a report on how those recommended stocks have done since Ive picked them. As of Oct. 6, my closed positions are up an average of 6.9%. In that same period, Jan. 16, 2004 to Oct. 6, 2004, the Standard & Poors 500 stock index broke even. My open positions, as of Oct. 6, are up an average of 6.4% during a period when the Standard & Poors stock index is up just 1%.
How did I arrive at these numbers and what do I mean by closed and open? My CNBC recommendations are short-term, 6-month picks. (Readers with longer time horizons can find a link to my 12-18 month Jubaks Picks and the 5-year 50 Best and Future 50 portfolios in the left hand margin of any of my columns.) To get my performance numbers, I assume that every recommended stock is sold six months after the recommendation. Those positions are therefore closed. Any recommendation that is less than six months old is still open, but will be sold when it reaches six months in age. The performance figures for my CNBC picks do not include dividends or transactions costs to keep the record keeping down to a manageable size.
The Oct. 6 performance report is the second Ive done. Ill try to keep readers up to date on my CNBC track record every quarter or so.
| Open positions | | Recommended | Company | Current price | Purchase price | Sell price | Gain/Loss* | | 4/21/2004 | MTS Systems (MTSC, news, msgs) | 22.51 | 25.93 | | -13.2% | | 4/21/2004 | Oshkosh Truck (OSK, news, msgs) | 58.87 | 54.07 | | 8.9% | | 4/21/2004 | Rogers Corp. (ROG, news, msgs) | 43.02 | 55.29 | | -22.2% | | 4/21/2004 | The Pep Boys - Manny (MOE & JA, news, msgs) | 14.17 | 28.5 | | -50.3% | | 4/28/2004 | Administaff (ASF, news, msgs) | 11.75 | 17.49 | | -32.8% | | 4/28/2004 | Gevity HR (GVHR, news, msgs) | 14.87 | 26.36 | | -43.6% | | 4/28/2004 | Labor Ready (LRW, news, msgs) | 14.20 | 12.68 | | 12.0% | | 4/28/2004 | Manpower (MAN, news, msgs) | 45.06 | 47.68 | | -5.5% | | 4/28/2004 | Robert Half International (RHI, news, msgs) | 25.85 | 28.04 | | -7.8% | | 5/5/2004 | Alcoa (AA, news, msgs) | 34.22 | 31.12 | | 10.0% | | 5/5/2004 | Inco (N, news, msgs) | 40.00 | 30.73 | | 30.2% | | 5/5/2004 | Peabody Energy (BTU, news, msgs) | 61.64 | 48.5 | | 27.1% | | 5/5/2004 | Phelps Dodge (PD, news, msgs) | 95.94 | 67.5 | | 42.1% | | 5/5/2004 | Southern Peru Copper (PCU, news, msgs) | 54.75 | 29.95 | | 82.8% | | 5/19/2004 | Maverick Tube (MVK, news, msgs) | 31.08 | 20.94 | | 48.4% | | 5/19/2004 | PACCAR (PCAR, news, msgs) | 70.81 | 53.17 | | 33.2% | | 5/19/2004 | The Middleby Corp. (MIDD, news, msgs) | 53.64 | 57.41 | | -6.6% | | 5/19/2004 | Veritas DGC (VTS, news, msgs) | 23.22 | 18.31 | | 26.8% | | 5/19/2004 | Watsco (WSO, news, msgs) | 30.85 | 25.99 | | 18.7% | | 5/26/2004 | Commercial Metals (CMC, news, msgs) | 42.59 | 29.46 | | 44.6% | | 5/26/2004 | Nucor (NUE, news, msgs) | 97.98 | 64.6 | | 51.7% | | 5/26/2004 | Portfolio Recovery Associates (PRAA, news, msgs) | 32.43 | 25.3 | | 28.2% | | 5/26/2004 | Southwest Airlines (LUV, news, msgs) | 14.03 | 15.69 | | -10.6% | | 5/26/2004 | Thomas & Betts (TNB, news, msgs) | 28.10 | 24.21 | | 16.1% | | 6/2/2004 | Cooper Tire & Rubber (CTB, news, msgs) | 21.01 | 21.55 | | -2.5% | | 6/2/2004 | FMC Corp. (FMC, news, msgs) | 49.35 | 41.24 | | 19.7% | | 6/2/2004 | Monsanto (MON, news, msgs) | 36.83 | 34.82 | | 5.8% | | 6/2/2004 | Potash (POT, news, msgs) | 64.48 | 43.87 | | 47.0% | | 6/2/2004 | Thor Industries (THO, news, msgs) | 26.93 | 28.55 | | -5.7% | | 6/9/2004 | Arrow Electronics (ARW, news, msgs) | 22.94 | 27.22 | | -15.7% | | 6/9/2004 | Deere & Co. (DE, news, msgs) | 64.66 | 66.97 | | -3.4% | | 6/9/2004 | Eaton Corp. (ETN, news, msgs) | 65.61 | 59.97 | | 9.4% | | 6/9/2004 | Stein Mart (SMRT, news, msgs) | 15.27 | 14.27 | | 7.0% | | 6/17/2004 | Electronic Arts (ERTS, news, msgs) | 45.90 | 51.65 | | -11.1% | | 6/17/2004 | Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV, news, msgs) | 37.91 | 33.87 | | 11.9% | | 6/17/2004 | Whirlpool (WHR, news, msgs) | 59.82 | 67.06 | | -10.8% | | 6/23/2004 | Armor Holdings (AH, news, msgs) | 43.71 | 34.25 | | 27.6% | | 6/23/2004 | Engineered Support System (EASI, news, msgs) | 47.12 | 59.7 | | -21.1% | | 6/23/2004 | General Dynamics (GD, news, msgs) | 101.51 | 100.15 | | 1.4% | | 6/23/2004 | L-3 Communications (LLL, news, msgs) | 67.10 | 65.35 | | 2.7% | | 6/23/2004 | United Defense Industries (UDI, news, msgs) | 40.72 | 33.98 | | 19.8% | | 6/30/2004 | Brascan (BNN, news, msgs) | 31.83 | 28.24 | | 12.7% | | 6/30/2004 | Copart (CPRT, news, msgs) | 19.30 | 26.7 | | -27.7% | | 6/30/2004 | Precision Castparts (PCP, news, msgs) | 61.87 | 54.69 | | 13.1% | | 6/30/2004 | The Brink's Co. (BCO, news, msgs) | 31.10 | 34.25 | | -9.2% | | 7/6/2004 | Amerada Hess (AHC, news, msgs) | 91.70 | 79.86 | | 14.8% | | 7/6/2004 | Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT, news, msgs) | 36.78 | 28.59 | | 28.6% | | 7/6/2004 | Biomet (BMET, news, msgs) | 47.82 | 46.75 | | 2.3% | | 7/6/2004 | Cytyc (CYTC, news, msgs) | 26.05 | 23.64 | | 10.2% | | 7/6/2004 | Valero Energy (VLO, news, msgs) | 85.77 | 75.77 | | 13.2% | | 7/14/2004 | Analog Devices (ADI, news, msgs) | 39.64 | 41.37 | | -4.2% | | 7/14/2004 | Micron Technology (MU, news, msgs) | 12.66 | 13.41 | | -5.6% | | 7/14/2004 | VERITAS Software (VRTS, news, msgs) | 20.60 | 17.51 | | 17.6% | | 7/14/2004 | World Fuel Services (INT, news, msgs) | 40.20 | 44.27 | | -9.2% | | 7/14/2004 | Xilinx (XLNX, news, msgs) | 28.79 | 30.9 | | -6.8% | | 7/21/2004 | Brown & Brown (BRO, news, msgs) | 46.50 | 42.35 | | 9.8% | | 7/21/2004 | Chico's FAS (CHS, news, msgs) | 35.48 | 42.72 | | -16.9% | | 7/21/2004 | CUNO (CUNO, news, msgs) | 58.50 | 51.53 | | 13.5% | | 7/21/2004 | Expeditors Int'l of WA (EXPD, news, msgs) | 54.68 | 47.24 | | 15.7% | | 7/21/2004 | Penn National Gaming (PENN, news, msgs) | 39.89 | 33.14 | | 20.4% | | 8/17/2004 | PepsiCo (PEP, news, msgs) | 49.20 | 50.32 | | -2.2% | | 8/17/2004 | Sanderson Farms (SAFM, news, msgs) | 35.99 | 43.14 | | -16.6% | | 8/17/2004 | Smithfield Foods (SFD, news, msgs) | 24.12 | 23.79 | | 1.4% | | 8/17/2004 | Sysco (SYY, news, msgs) | 29.91 | 32.02 | | -6.6% | | 9/8/2004 | Bank of Marin (BMRC, news, msgs) | 33.58 | 31.72 | | 5.9% | | 9/8/2004 | First Oak Brook Bancshares (FOBB, news, msgs) | 32.03 | 29.77 | | 7.6% | | 9/8/2004 | Main Street Banks (MSBK, news, msgs) | 29.24 | 28.28 | | 3.4% | | 9/8/2004 | Middleburg Financial (MBRG, news, msgs) | 36.25 | 33.75 | | 7.4% | | 9/8/2004 | Trustmark (TRMK, news, msgs) | 32.14 | 30.41 | | 5.7% | | 9/15/2004 | Arkansas Best (ABFS, news, msgs) | 38.55 | 35.87 | | 7.5% | | 9/15/2004 | Knight Transportation (KNGT, news, msgs) | 22.84 | 20.87 | | 9.4% | | 9/15/2004 | Landstar System (LSTR, news, msgs) | 59.00 | 55.14 | | 7.0% | | 9/15/2004 | UTi Worldwide (UTIW, news, msgs) | 59.90 | 56.64 | | 5.8% | | 9/15/2004 | Yellow Roadway (YELL, news, msgs) | 47.95 | 44.77 | | 7.1% | | 9/27/2004 | BJ Services (BJS, news, msgs) | 54.05 | 52.13 | | 3.7% | | 9/27/2004 | Cal Dive International (CDIS, news, msgs) | 37.90 | 34.17 | | 10.9% | | 9/27/2004 | Hydril (HYDL, news, msgs) | 44.60 | 42.4 | | 5.2% | | 9/27/2004 | National-Oilwell (NOI, news, msgs) | 34.74 | 32.64 | | 6.4% | | 9/27/2004 | Smith International (SII, news, msgs) | 62.65 | 60.64 | | 3.3% | | 9/29/2004 | Cicuit City Stores (CC, news, msgs) | 15.59 | 15.59 | | 0.0% | | 9/29/2004 | J.C. Penney (JCP, news, msgs) | 35.71 | 35.81 | | -0.3% | | 9/29/2004 | Joseph A Bank (JOSB, news, msgs) | 29.00 | 28.97 | | 0.1% | | 9/29/2004 | RadioShack (RSH, news, msgs) | 28.67 | 28.49 | | 0.6% | | 9/29/2004 | Urban Outfitters (URBN, news, msgs) | 35.28 | 34.43 | | 2.5% | | All open positions | | | | 6.4% | | S&P 500 4/21/2004 to 10/6/2004 | | | | 1.0% |
|
*Gain or loss is from date recommended to Oct. 6, 2004.
| Closed positions | | Recommended | Company | Current price | Purchase price | Sell price | Gain/Loss | | 1/16/2004 | CARBO Ceramics (CRR, news, msgs) | 75.31 | 50.83 | 72.90 | 43.4% | | 1/16/2004 | Schlumberger (SLB, news, msgs) | 69.00 | 53.89 | 64.91 | 20.4% | | 1/16/2004 | Universal Compression Holdings (UCO, news, msgs) | 35.19 | 26.78 | 32.95 | 23.0% | | 3/2/2004 | Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce (RIO, news, msgs) | 23.39 | 20.03 | 19.17 | -4.3% | | 3/2/2004 | GrafTech (GTI, news, msgs) | 13.89 | 13.80 | 11.62 | -15.8% | | 3/2/2004 | Weyerhaeuser (WY, news, msgs) | 66.52 | 65.16 | 64.67 | -0.8% | | 3/10/2004 | Mohawk Industries (MHK, news, msgs) | 79.59 | 82.00 | 80.10 | -2.3% | | 3/10/2004 | Perrigo (PRGO, news, msgs) | 21.25 | 18.96 | 20.10 | 6.0% | | 3/10/2004 | PETsMART (PETM, news, msgs) | 29.22 | 25.48 | 28.22 | 10.8% | | 3/10/2004 | Rayovac (ROV, news, msgs) | 25.51 | 25.75 | 25.33 | -1.6% | | 3/10/2004 | Wolverine World Wide (WWW, news, msgs) | 29.45 | 23.26 | 25.60 | 10.1% | | 3/24/2004 | Canadian Natural Resource (CNQ, news, msgs) | 41.21 | 26.93 | 37.53 | 39.4% | | 3/24/2004 | Suncor Energy (SU, news, msgs) | 34.02 | 26.51 | 30.39 | 14.6% | | 3/24/2004 | TransCanada Corp. (TRP, news, msgs) | 22.33 | 21.74 | 22.13 | 1.8% | | 3/31/2004 | Audiovox (VOXX, news, msgs) | 17.76 | 18.54 | 17.43 | -6.0% | | 3/31/2004 | Central Parking (CPC, news, msgs) | 13.12 | 20.08 | 13.20 | -34.3% | | 3/31/2004 | The Toro Co. (TTC, news, msgs) | 70.99 | 62.00 | 70.00 | 12.9% | | All closed positions | | | | 6.0% | | S&P 500 4/21/2004 to 10/6/2004 | | | | 0.0% |
|
|
