Jim Jubak

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Posted 10/19/2004

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 Jubak's Journal
Readers top issues for the future U.S. president

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The last presidential debate managed to ignore the top economic issues. Plenty of frustrated readers wanted more answers on everything from retraining workers for new careers to overhauling the tax code to poverty.

By Jim Jubak

Sometimes, being right isnt all its cracked up to be.

On Oct. 12, the day before the last of three debates between the incumbent President Bush and challenger Senator Kerry, I predicted that neither candidate would discuss the five biggest economic issues facing us today -- even though this round was supposed to focus on the economy.

Know what? I was right. Neither candidate even waved at my issues: stopping congressional pork-barrel spending, outsourcings effects on older workers, dangers to private pensions, the decline of the U.S. dollar and the need for national economic security. (For the full story, click here).

And from the e-mail that column generated, it appears readers arent hearing their top issues discussed in this campaign, either. A good many of you also feel I left some key points off my list. Here, then, are the issues readers feel strongly about that my column ignored. (And, thanks to the more than 200 readers who e-mailed me. Im still working on answering each of your contributions.)

Following the 10 issue-oriented e-mails, Ive put together a sample that represents the group of readers who asked why the debate has avoided these topics. The fault, these readers say, doesnt lie just with our politicians.

Readers top issues for the candidates
  • I have two that I'd like to see discussed. First, poverty and the growing divide between the lower middle class and the upper middle class. The median household income has decreased to about $43,300 and home ownership among those who earn $50,000 or less has actually decreased. As jobs are outsourced and healthcare costs increase, this gets worse. Second, we are losing the War on Terror because we are not making the investment in poor countries to tackle the causes of terrorism. We have not discussed economic aid to other countries. The effect that building world GDP growth would have on commodity prices, including oil, and prices for goods and services here has not been addressed. -- P. Haire
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  • Your "5 big questions" article hit the nail on the head. However, there are a couple of more nails. First in the short term, how and when are we going to address China's currency? This is a spring that continues to tighten and without a plan to slowly unwind this spring, we could be in for a global shock. If there is a plan in place to devalue by 5% at a time we may avoid the shock. But, if the exchange rate stays fixed for another 12 to 18 months and the government is forced to make a big move, then we are likely to have a currency crisis. The second issue and much more critical is the education of future workers. Every politician speaks about retraining workers for the "new" (technical) economy. But, we are not even training workers for the current economy. China and India are kicking our butts in the number of science and engineering students graduating each year. The real problem will come in 10 years, not only from the ratio of workers to retirees, but from the amount of money U.S. workers without technical training will make and thus be able to contribute to Social Security. Fewer workers making less money cannot support the current retirement scheme. -- Jeff Lewis

  • I couldn't agree more with you. Only I would extend (the list) to 10 big problems. One does not need to be a bond wizard like Bill Gross or a perpetual pessimist like (MSN Money columnist Bill) Fleckenstein to see that Alan Greenspan is the worst Fed chairman ever. If you ask an average person in the country who his senators or governor are, a lot will not know. But everybody knows Big Al. And the aura that surrounds him made him a god and untouchable. -- Sam A.

  • I would like to see Bush/Kerry debate a complete overhaul of the U.S. tax code, and my idea of one flat tax for all -- not on consumption as Bush supporters are promulgating, but on all deposits of all entities -- yes! Including all foreign corporations and all eleemosynaries (charities) and all of Wall Street! Down with the reign of CPA firms and their mumbo-jumbo accounting lies of accrual accounting of what constitutes present versus deferred taxable net income! Abolish all corporate tax dodges and loopholes. -- H. Ronald Hartman

  • Re: retraining. Do you have any idea of the level of education and experience that the people being outsourced have? What are we supposed to retrain ourselves as? Maybe the developers and engineers can become bartenders, pastry chefs or dog walkers? I personally know someone in their mid-50s who used to design security systems for military installations, who hasn't worked in over two years and someone in their early 20s with a double major in information technology and telecom, who works at O'Hare airport in security and has never gotten their first job. -- Susan Morgan

  • Why not get Congress off their retirement program and into the Social Security program or vice versa? (Could you imagine the smiles on retirees faces if they started getting what our congressional retirees are getting?) They (congress) may have a much deeper sense of public obligation if we were all under the same retirement umbrella. -- T. T.

  • There is something missing from the article and that's care for the environment. Changes in the environment are having a greater impact on our economic well-being and will continue to grow. I am looking forward to the day when the impact of environmental changes will be measured as a percentage of GDP. -- Peter Kakkavas

  • A lot of expenses have been shifted onto the shoulders of the states. I read that more and more states and cities are facing financial crises. In my small New England state alone, we face $100 million of repairs in roads and bridges. I'd like to know the total funds needed to repair the infrastructure of all 50 states and where the money will come from. -- Michael Page

  • I have been worried about a young worker and an older worker getting laid off and the impact on each. I am an engineer and there aren't a lot of jobs in this field. Most companies now use "just in time" hiring and hire workers on a temporary basis, with no benefits. I have been working like this since 1995. There are periods of unemployment throughout. When a job is finished you get laid off and look around for the next temporary job. It makes me ill when I hear the announcement that 144,000 jobs were created. That's a net gain in numbers only. There are no large increases in engineering jobs in any month. A related topic is underemployment. I know several engineers that are working, but not in their field. I know one that works at a grocery store, one at the UPS store, one at Olive Garden, Lowe's, Home Depot and other non-engineering establishments. We are all in our 50s. It is too late for us to learn a new occupation. -- Don Wilder

  • Our sense of entitlement. We expect to have health care provided to us (by employers or the government). We expect that our retirement will be paid for by Social Security. We expect good roads and good schools. But we also expect someone else to pay for them. It is time that we all realize that we are responsible for taking care of those basic needs. We need to plan for our own future. It used to be common to "save for a rainy day," but now we borrow and hope for sunshine tomorrow. We cant fix the future if we dont stop stealing from it today. -- Paul Szydlowski

Electorate under fire
That last e-mail from Paul Szydlowski also represents another strain in the e-mails I received. Some readers took the next step. After listing issues that theyd like to hear about in this years campaign, they took a hard look at the electorate itself. Viewer discretion advised: Its not a complimentary self-portrait.
  • You hit the nail on the head with your column about the five big questions. But do you seriously expect either of these politicians running for president to actually tell the hard truth? With a 96% re-election rate to Congress, do you expect anything to change there, either? It looks like the American public will learn its lessons the usual way: hard. -- Jeff Cole

  • While I share your exasperation about the unwillingness of the candidates to talk about critical economic issues, I believe you are mistaken about why they are not discussed. The public doesn't want to hear the truth! No politician gets elected by saying NO to spending. They don't want to be perceived as cruel, unsympathetic people in some political ad. It's much easier to say yes and "help" us all out with some feel-good program. It's not possible for Congress to reign in spending because it's not in their interest to do so. The longer incumbents stay in office, the more powerful they become. They need to bring back the bacon to their districts to make their constituents happy, and then complain about everyone else's wasteful spending. We've become used to the government taking care of us and I fear it will only get worse. I have no solution because it would require personal responsibility, and that concept is rapidly disappearing. -- Robert Lotz

  • I guess the only thing I could add is that your five big questions can and should be addressed. To believe that anything can be done about it without feeling some serious pain is just plain wrong. This country needs to go on a diet and stop the bleeding. I don't believe it is important regarding who is at fault, because we all are. The bigger question is what we, as a nation, are going to do about it. -- Ronald D. Yeater
Couldnt have put it better myself.

New developments on past columns

Time is ripe for these 7 biotechs

Well, time hasnt exactly been ripe lately for Cell Genesys (CEGE, news, msgs). The shares have dropped by 30% between Oct. 4 and Oct. 15. (On the other hand, they were up 16% from Aug. 31, the date I initially recommended the shares, and Sept. 17; I did say these shares were volatile, didnt I?) The catalyst for the recent sell-off was an announcement of a $110 million private placement of Convertible Senior Notes paying 3.125% interest. The money will be used to pay down two outstanding bank loans, which will free up about $60 million of the companys current cash on hand. Thats the good news. The good/bad news is that the offering converts into stock at a price of $9.10 a share, roughly 38% above the stocks close on Oct. 15, but about 10% below the recent high of Sept. 14. The bad news, at least as far as Wall Street is concerned, is that the offering converts into about 12.1 million new shares of stock. This means that after dilution, current shareholders would own about 25% less of the company. The research news out of the company this week has been solid: Cell Genesys started a Phase 1 clinical trial of its GVAX prostate cancer vaccine in collaboration with a human antibody from Medarex (MEDX, news, msgs). Biotech stocks with drugs under development always have to raise money, so it shouldnt come as a surprise to Wall Street when they do. But somehow, Wall Street always knocks the price of the stock down in reaction. This would be logical, I suppose, if the price of a stock like this were driven by actual earnings. But because the companys leading drugs are still years from market, the stock price is driven by research news. As of Oct. 19, Im keeping my target price at $16 by February 2005.

Editor's Note: A new Jubaks Journal is posted every Tuesday and Friday.

E-mail Jim Jubak at jjmail@microsoft.com.

At the time of publication, Jim Jubak owned or controlled shares in the following equities mentioned in this column: Cell Genesys. He does not own short positions in any stock mentioned in this column.

 

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