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Quotes delayed at least 20 minutes. To track performance in Jubak's Picks fairly, the "Price Then" displayed is the closing price on the date each add/drop was made. Until we have a closing price on the first day of the pick, we display the previous day's close as a placeholder.
| Company |
Symbol |
Date
Picked |
Price
Then |
Price
Now |
Today's
Change |
Jubak's
Gain/Loss |
| Ormat Technologies Inc |
ORA |
11/17/09 |
$40.80000 |
$40.56 |
-$0.05 |
-0.59% |
If you think that global climate change is real and that the world does indeed need to do something about it and PDQ, then the delay in addressing the problem turns an already interesting Ormat Technologies (ORA) into a winner deserving a buy from Jubak’s Picks. For two reasons. First, geothermal is one of the few alternative energy technologies that can provide base load electrical power. Wind produces electricity only when it blows, sun only when it shines. Second, the company’s recovered energy generation plants are exactly the kind of easily built quick solutions using proven technology that a world that has dithered over global climate change will need. They can be built just about anywhere that an industrial process throws off heat. We know the technology works. They can be hooked into the current grid (to provide base load power in many cases.) And they require capital in increments that lie within most corporate budgets. On November 4, the company reported third quarter earnings of 52 cents a share, up from 35 cents a share in the third quarter of 2008. Revenue was $120 million, an increase of 20% from the third quarter of 2008. As of November 17, 2009, I’m adding shares of Ormat Technologies to Jubak’s Picks with a target price of $49 a share by November 2010. (Full disclosure: I will buy shares of Ormat Technologies for my personal portfolio three days after this I posted.)
|
| Lynas ADR |
LYSCY |
11/6/09 |
$23.00000 |
$25.50 |
+$0.25 |
10.87% |
As of November 6, I’m adding shares of Lynas (LYSCY) to Jubak’s Picks. China controls about 95% of the global supply of rare earth minerals. And until September 24 China Non-ferrous Mining looked like it was going to buy 52% of Lynas, the Australian company that owns the world’s richest rare earths deposit. But Australian regulators said No to any deal that gave Chinese investors majority control and China Non-ferrous Mining walked away. That left Lynas scrambling to find alternative financing. The company finally did in early November and now it can move ahead with construction of a concentrating plant to do initial processing of the 773,300 metric tons of ore the company has stock piled at the site of its mine, and with the construction of an advanced processing plant in Malaysia that produce rare earth minerals ready for export. As of November 6 I’m adding shares of Lynas to Jubak’s Picks with a target price of $29 a share by October 2010. Full disclosure: I own shares of Lynas ADRs in my personal portfolio. I will buy more three days after this is posted.)
|
| Goldcorp Inc |
GG |
11/5/09 |
$40.44000 |
$43.64 |
-$0.37 |
7.91% |
Goldcorp (GG) reported third quarter earnings after the market close on November 4. The short-term news was that the company beat Wall Street earnings estimates by three cents a share and revenue projections by $77 million. China has been quietly buying gold for years, doubling its holdings over the last six years. But the country still holds only 2% of its reserves in gold. Even after India’s big buy, that country has just 6.2% of reserves in gold. Contrast that not just to the 32.7% peak in 1989 or to the 10.3% global average at the end of 2008, but to the 60% average in Europe or the 77% of reserves that the U.S. holds in gold. The Reserve Bank of India had 20% of its reserves in gold fifteen years ago. Before this recent buy, reserve levels had tumbled to just 3.2% in gold. A buy the size of India’s is certainly big enough to change the supply/demand side of the global gold market. Its purchase of 200 metric tons of gold is equal to about 8% of the total annual output from the world’s gold mines. With this post I’m adding Goldcorp to Jubak’s Picks with a target price of $48 a share by October 2010. Full disclosure: I will buy shares of Goldcorp for my personal portfolio three days after this is posted.
|
| Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing ADR representing Five Ord |
TSM |
10/21/09 |
$10.20000 |
$10.39 |
-$0.03 |
1.86% |
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (TSM) has about a 50% share of the market for manufacturing other companies’ chips. As chip factories have gotten more and more expensive, more and more chip 'makers' have farmed out the actual manufacturing to companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor. As the biggest contract manufacturer in the world, Taiwan Semiconductor has the cash to constantly push the envelope on chip manufacturing by cramming more and more transistors closer and closer together. As of October 20, 2009 I’m adding the stock to Jubak’s Picks with a target price of $12 a share by May 2010. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Taiwan Semiconductor in my personal portfolio and will add to that position three days after this is posted.)
|
| Teva Pharmaceutical Industries ADR Reptg One Ord Shs |
TEVA |
10/13/09 |
$51.19000 |
$52.72 |
-$0.32 |
2.99% |
No matter what health care reform bill emerges from Congress this year -- or if there’s no bill at all -- the pressure to get costs out of the health care system is just going to get more intense. Generic drug makers win once because any legislation will expand the number of insured able to afford drugs, and twice, because economics will continue to move patients, doctors, and health care bill payers to generics. No wonder Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (TEVA) is guiding Wall Street to 30% earnings growth in 2010. As of October 13, 2009, I’m adding Teva Pharmaceutical Industries to Jubak’s Picks with a target price of $61 a share by October 2010. That values Teva at about 14x my estimate of 2010 earnings of $4.35 a share. As of October 13th, the stock traded above $51 -- 14.25x Standard & Poor’s estimate of 2009 earnings. Full disclosure: I do not own or control shares of any company mentioned in this post.
|
| Corning Inc |
GLW |
10/12/09 |
$15.75000 |
$16.41 |
-$0.16 |
4.19% |
If you’ve owned Corning (GLW) shares for any length of time as I have, you’re familiar with this balancing act: Great long-term prospects push up the stock, while short-term worries push it down. That’s exactly what investors got in the market reaction to Corning’s third-quarter earnings announced on October 26. The company reported earnings of 42 cents a share, beating Wall Street projections by three cents a share. Revenues were down 4.9% from the third quarter of 2008, but at $1.48 billion still came in $60 million above analyst expectations. Dig a little deeper, and the quarter showed exactly how good Corning’s future could be. Sales from units that represent products that are just gaining market traction now soared from second-quarter levels. As of October 28, I’m keeping my current target price of $19 a share for June 2010. (It traded below $15 Wednesday.) Full disclosure: I own shares of Corning in my personal portfolio.
|
| WR Berkley Corp |
WRB |
10/7/09 |
$25.86000 |
$24.41 |
-$0.04 |
-5.61% |
I’m buying the common shares of W.R. Berkley (WRB) as a replacement for the preferred shares that I sold out of Jubak’s Picks. I think they offer almost twice the up side with just slightly more risk. I’m a big fan of the very conservative ship run by chief executive officer William Berkley. No financial company has escaped all damage from the recent (and, in my mind, continuing) financial crisis, but W.R. Berkley has dodged most of the big bullets. The $108-million write-down that WRB took in the fourth quarter, for example, was on invested assets of $12.5 billion. The up side here is that, as the company told Wall Street in April, it looks like prices in its property and casualty insurance lines are starting to turn. In April, the company said it expected prices to improve as weaker insurers abandoned business by the end of 2009. As of October 7th, I’m adding this stock to Jubak’s Picks with a target price of $33 a share by September 2009.
|
| Cisco Systems Inc |
CSCO |
09/25/09 |
$22.62000 |
$23.46 |
-$0.22 |
3.71% |
So far on the morning of November 5, Cisco systems' (CSCO) results have helped send the overall market upwards. This quarter investors could see the tipping point in the company’s order book. Total orders were still down by 7%-9% from the fiscal first quarter a year ago. But that’s a huge improvement from the 30% year to year decline the company has cited in recent quarters and shows that orders are actually picking up at Cisco. In the quarter enterprise orders—that’s orders from big corporations—were ahead 10% from the fiscal first quarter a year ago. In the conference call the company projected that for the fiscal second quarter that ends in January 2010 revenue would show a year to year increase or 1% to 4%. That doesn’t seem like much but it would mark Cisco’s return to revenue growth. That kind of growth translates into revenue of $9.2 billion to $9.45 billion. The Wall Street consensus had been for revenue of $9 billion. (As of November 5, I’m tweaking my target price higher to $29 a share by June 2010 from the previous $28 by that month. Full disclosure: I own shares of Cisco Systems in my personal portfolio.)
|
| Statoil ADR Rep 1 Ord Shs |
STO |
09/23/09 |
$22.74000 |
$25.45 |
-$0.01 |
11.92% |
Norway's next oil frontier just got a little closer--and there's only one stock to play it. The reelection of Norwegian Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg on September 14th moves the country a little closer to opening the oil-rich but environmentally fragile Lofoten Islands to oil and natural gas drilling. And the prime beneficiary of any expansion of drilling in the area will be Statoil Hydro (STO), Norway's national oil company. I'm adding the shares to Jubak's Picks today with a target price of $28 a share by July 2010. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Statoil Hydro in my personal portfolio.)
|
| GulfMark Offshore Inc |
GLF |
09/17/09 |
$30.55000 |
$28.01 |
-$0.66 |
-8.31% |
Suddenly they’re hitting gushers from the Gulf of Mexico to the South Atlantic off Brazil to the west coast of Africa off Ghana and Sierra Leone. I'm adding GulfMark Offshore (GLF), a company that operates oil service vehicles, the ships that bring supplies to drilling platforms and other offshore worksites. The company has traditionally specialized in the North Sea but with its July 2008 acquisition of Rigdon it added 33 ships (to the one it owned) in the Gulf of Mexico. GulfMark has a trailing price to earnings ratio of just 4.7. So with this post I’m going to add GulfMark Offshore to Jubak’s Picks with a target price of $41 a share by September 2010. Schlumberger is a member of my long-term Jubak Picks 50 portfolio. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Schlumberger and Transocean in my personal account.)
|
| Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF |
BRF |
09/11/09 |
$38.200 |
$46.14 |
-$0.48 |
20.79% |
The fundamentals are improving in Brazil--but right now global cash flows are driving emerging-market stocks.In the long run, I want Brazil in my portfolio because of those improving fundamentals. In the short run, I want to own Brazilian stocks because global cash is flowing their way. In the intermediate term, though—say, nine months from now--I want to get increasingly cautious as the US Federal Reserve moves towards raising US interest rates. Right now all that adds up to a new higher target price for Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF (BRF). As of October 15th, I'm raising my target price on the Market Vectors Brazil ETF to $51 by June 2010 from the prior target of $44 by that date. It was trading below $46 on the 15th. (Full disclosure: I own shares of iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF and Market Vectors Brazil Small-Cap ETF in my personal portfolio.)
|
| Johnson Controls Inc |
JCI |
09/08/09 |
$25.26000 |
$26.86 |
-$0.39 |
6.33% |
You certainly can’t say that Johnson Controls (JCI) has turned the corner. But it does look like the corner is in sight. Before the market opened on October 27th, Johnson Controls reported earnings of 52 cents a share for the company’s fiscal fourth quarter of 2009. That beat the Wall Street consensus by a penny a share. The problem is, that came from more successful than expected cost cutting rather than from increases in sales. Even though it came in $40 million above analyst projections, revenue, in fact, fell by 15.5% from the fourth quarter of fiscal 2008. Revenue dropped in all three of the company’s business segments. Sales in what Johnson Controls calls the Automotive Experience segment (auto interiors) dropped by 14%. Power Solutions (a.k.a. batteries) showed a drop in sales of 14%. And the Building Efficiency unit (air conditioning and build energy management) witnessed a 16% drop in sales. But units that had been in the red, such as Automotive Experience, returned to the black in the quarter even with the drop in sales thanks to aggressive cost cutting. And units that had been profitable, such as Power Solutions, saw operating margins increase. In many of its businesses--Automotive Experience, for example--Johnson Controls seems to be taking market share. Cost-cutting measures will translate into improving margins as sales volume gradually returns. As of October 27, I’m raising my target price for Johnson Controls by $1 to $32 a share by July 2010. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Johnson Controls in my personal portfolio.)
|
| Microsoft Corp |
MSFT |
07/24/09 |
$23.45000 |
$29.62 |
-$0.16 |
26.31% |
When I added Microsoft (MSFT) on July 24, 2009 after the company announced results for its fiscal fourth quarter, I wrote 'This is as bad as it gets.' After its October 23 earnings release the company is now saying the same thing. In the post-earnings conference call Microsoft CFO Chris Liddell said that the fourth quarter may have been the bottom. Certainly the company is behaving as if it were: Microsoft resumed buying back shares in the quarter that ended in September with purchases of 1.4 billion shares. First quarter earnings for fiscal 2010 fell to 40 cents a share, but that beat the 32 cents expected by Wall Street. Revenue declined by 14% from the first quarter of fiscal 2009 to $12.92 billion. That big drop in revenue came because Microsoft deferred $1.47 billion in revenue from customers upgrading to Windows 7. Put that back in and revenue came to $14.39 billion, a 4% decline from the year earlier period. Microsoft beat Wall Street estimates this quarter by cutting costs by more than Wall Street expected. Operating costs dropped 6.9% after the company made its first ever company-wide firings, slashed travel costs and cut the prices it pays vendors. In the conference call the company increased its cost-cutting target. The big question going forward, however, isn’t about cutting costs but about how many copies of the new Windows 7 operating system Microsoft can sell. Here too the news was good. Deferred revenue came in above analyst expectations because pre-orders of Windows 7, which officially went on sale on October 22, were higher than projected. The company sold more copies of Windows in the quarter than in any other previous quarter with sales fueled by demand for Windows 7 and by sales to netbook makers of copies of the older Windows XP operating system. As of October 23, I’m increasing my target price for Microsoft to $33 by June 2010 from the prior $31 a share. Full disclosure: I own shares of Microsoft in my personal account.
|
| Potash Corp of Saskatchewan Inc |
POT |
07/23/09 |
$95.78000 |
$114.70 |
+$1.53 |
19.75% |
I’m putting in a buy Potash of Saskatchewan (POT) today. I wish it were $10 a share cheaper, but the company just delivered the kind of really terrible quarter that marks a bottom. Investors cheered–well, they bought–when the company told them that the September quarter will be even worse. All that’s fine with me. I want to own this stock for the long-run increase in global demand for food. That’s why it’s in The Jubak Picks 50 portfolio. In the shorter-term, I like the stock too because it fits the commodity investing model that I laid out in my last post on BHP Billiton (BHP). Potash, the world's largest producer of potash fertilizer, controls about 22% of global potash capacity. The company has slashed production and idled about half of its capacity. That doesn’t give the company the ability to control prices, but it does enable Potash to strongly influence, let us say, the amount of idle capacity that comes back into production and when. And that’s exactly what I want to see, as I laid out in my last post, in a commodity stock during what is likely to be a slow global economic recovery. As of July 23, I’d adding these shares to Jubak’s Picks–they’re already in The Jubak Picks 50 portfolio–with a target price of $125 a share as of June 2010. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Potash in my personal portfolio. I will buy more three days after this post.)
|
| Qualcomm Inc |
QCOM |
07/15/09 |
$46.06000 |
$45.10 |
+$0.01 |
-2.08% |
Qualcomm (QCOM) reported better results than Wall Street expected after the market close on July 22. The company's earnings for its fiscal third quarter came in 2 cents a share above projections. The stock retreated in trading on July 23, however, because momentum traders who had pushed the stock up in the days before the report didn't raise guidance for the fourth quarter. With all the good news in the stock for the moment, they sold. If you've got a slightly longer holding period than these traders, though, there was plenty in the report and conference call to keep you in the stock. Most importantly, Qualcomm said inventory was lean. That means production will quickly translate into sales, and the company should be able to generate rising operating margins. With the company's new product pipeline full --Qualcomm is positioned to be the big winner in the upgrade to 3G and 4G networks -- low inventory levels also mean that the company won't have to resort to widespread price cutting to move lots of older product. I think the company's guidance for the September quarter was deliberately conservative and that growth will accelerate in the December period. As of July 14, I’m keeping my target price of $55 by March 2010. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Qualcomm in my personal portfolio.
|
| Pepsico Inc |
PEP |
04/21/09 |
$49.35000 |
$62.08 |
+$0.20 |
25.80% |
Before the stock market opened on October 8, PepsiCo (PEP) reported third-quarter earnings of $1.08 a share and revenue of $11.08 billion. The earnings were five cents a share above Wall Street earnings estimates -- although up just slightly from the $1.06 reported in the third quarter of 2008 -- but the revenue was $170 million light, declining by 1.5% from the third quarter of 2008. So, why did the stock tumble? Because it had climbed going into earnings and this is a 'sell on the news' kind of market. PepsiCo disappointed momentum investors by merely affirming its previous guidance on earnings and revenue for the rest of 2009. Without any 'new' good news, they sold. If you've been looking to get into PepsiCo, this drop is a good entry point. I'm not changing my current price target at all today. I raised the target price to $68 a share on October 2nd. I'm leaving it at that level. (Full disclosure: I don’t own shares of PepsiCo.)
|
| McDonald's Corp |
MCD |
01/13/09 |
$59.32000 |
$63.97 |
+$0.56 |
7.84% |
Now that’s the kind of quarter investors own McDonald's (MCD) for. Earnings for the third quarter, reported before the market open on October 22, climbed to $1.15 a share from $1.05 in the third quarter of 2008. That was above Wall Street expectations of $1.11 a share. Revenue fell 3.5% to $6.05 billion. That was below analyst projections of $6.1 billion. But on a constant currency basis, revenue was up 2% from the third quarter of 2008. As of October 22, 2009, I’m keeping my target price at $72 a share but extending the schedule from March 2010 to September 2010.
|
| Energy Transfer Partners LP |
ETP |
11/11/08 |
$35.75000 |
$43.39 |
-$0.17 |
21.37% |
The longer the Federal Reserve promises to keep interest rates low, the more valuable Energy Transfer Partners (ETP) is and the longer I want to hold it. In its press release from its June 24 meeting the Federal Open Market Committee said it 'continues to anticipate that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.' Units of Energy Transfer Partners now yield 8.03% versus a Fed funds target rate of 0% to 0.25%. As of July 29, I'm raising my target price for this master limited partnership to $49 a unit by June 2010 from my prior target of $47 by March 2010. (Full disclosure: I own units of Energy Transfer Partners in my personal portfolio.)
|
| ONEOK PARTNERS LP |
OKS |
10/07/08 |
$41.71000 |
$56.95 |
-$0.21 |
36.54% |
Certainly not a great quarter but it will do. After the close on Aug. 4 Oneok Partners (OKS) announced second-quarter earnings of 81 cents a unit. (This is a master limited partnership rather than common stock.) That was down from $1.46 in the second quarter of 2008. But with most of its capital spending budget about to go from a drag on cash flow to a contributor to revenue, I'm going to hold onto these units and up my target price a tad. With a master limited partnership, which gets special tax treatment because it passes most of its cash flow on to investors, the issue is always cash flow and whether it's enough to cover distributions or not. ONEOK came up short in the first half of 2009 with cash flow from operations of $189 million and cash distributions of $242 million. The company was able to make up with difference from cash balances and by selling debt. I wouldn't like to see that go on for very long. The second quarter numbers suggest it won't for two reasons. First, although distributable cash flow continued its decline -- dropping 26% from the second quarter of 2008 -- the rate of decline is slowing. And it's slowing with the company still on the right side of the cash flow ledger. Distributable cash flow for the quarter was 1.1 times distributions. Second, ONEOK will see revenue risk over the next few quarters as new pipelines come into use. The Arbuckle Pipeline went into use this quarter increasing capacity out of the Barnett Shale formation in Texas. The Piceance Lateral pipeline is expected to come on line in the third quarter. The company projects distributable cash flow for 2009 in the range of $505 million to $545 million. In reaching its projections the company used oil at $64 a barrel and natural gas at $4. As of Aug. 5, I'm raising my target price to $54 a unit by March 2010. (Full disclosure: I own shares of ONEOK in my personal portfolio.)
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| Transocean Inc |
RIG |
8/1/08 |
$137.61000 |
$83.80 |
-$1.42 |
-39.10% |
By idling and stacking rigs aggressively, Transocean (RIG) the owner of the largest rig fleet in the world, has stabilized day rates even in this downturn. The average rate for the company’s deepwater rigs rose by 14%, and the average day rate across Transocean’s fleet climbed by 17%. The issue this quarter, as it was last quarter, is when the turn will come in the market for offshore rigs. Transocean continues to talk about a recovery in the first half of 2010. The company is burning through about $1 billion of its order backlog every month, but with $32 billion in backlog as of November 2nd, it has enough backlog to see it through this downturn unless it extends well past the midyear timetable for a recovery. Recent numbers that show the Chinese economy running even hotter than expected are good news for companies such as Transocean. As of November 9th, I’m leaving my target price at $105 a share by June 2010. It traded at around $90 Wednesday. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Transocean in my personal portfolio.)
|
| Middleby Corp |
MIDD |
5/20/08 |
$57.41000 |
$46.19 |
-$0.46 |
-19.54% |
Middleby (MIDD) is closing in on my December target price of $66 a share. Here's what I do when that happens: 1. I check to see whether anything has changed at the company since I last set that target price. 2. If nothing has changed for the positive, I sell at the target. If you do this review and find something has changed for the negative, then sell without waiting for the target. 3. If something has changed for the positive, I incorporate the good news into my calculations and see where that leaves me for a new target price. If the new prices would give me an acceptable potential return for holding the stock, that's what I do. If the target price is up but the gain is piddling, the stock is still a sell. In the case of Middleby, the company has just kept chugging along with its strategy of buying smaller competitors in order to break into additional market segments or increase its clout in its existing businesses. The company should have solid product lines but show inflated costs that it can reduce by applying its buying power or larger sales force. Since the May update, Middleby has acquired TurboChef Technologies, a smaller maker of high-speed cooking equipment used in locations such as convenience stores. This is a market segment where Middleby didn't have a presence. Three customers – Starbucks, Dunkin' Donuts and Subway -- make up about 50% of TurboChef's sales. Middleby plans to get at least $23 million in cost savings. This deal won't add anything to earnings until the third quarter of 2009, but it is an indication that Middleby is sticking to its core strategy even in a tough economy. The company's existing businesses aren't doing badly either. KFC is introducing new low-fat grilled chicken products that depend on Middleby's convection ovens, and the war between Domino's Pizza and Yum Brands' Pizza Hut over guaranteed fast delivery is being fought with Middleby equipment. Only about 10% of Middleby's sales come from the casual-dining restaurant segment that has been hit hard by the U.S. economic slowdown. The rest comes from fast-food or quick-serve food outlets, where growth has held its own. The third piece of positive news for Middleby comes from a slowdown -- and perhaps even a decline -- in steel prices. Depending on which steel market you watch, the price of steel, Middleby's key raw material, is holding flat or declining. Either would be good news for the company, which has been fighting soaring steel prices. These three bits of positive news for Middleby are enough to lead me to increase my target price, as of Sept. 23, for Middleby to $75 a share by October 2009 from my prior target of $66 by December 2008. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Middleby in my personal portfolio.)
|
| Enbridge Inc |
ENB |
12/18/07 |
$38.41900 |
$41.32 |
-$0.07 |
7.55% |
Enbridge (ENB) has held up well during the bear market. The total return -- price gains of 4.56% and dividend payments of $1.32 a share since my December 2007 buy -- comes to 8.4%. Some of that is the result of the stock's dividend, about 3.1% as of Sept. 22. But more, I think, is related to on-track progress in the company's new pipeline and wind-power projects. As these projects go into service, they go from being a drain to being a contributor to Enbridge's bottom line. For example, the Waupisoo Pipeline, to bring oil from the Alberta oil sands to Edmonton, went into service in the second quarter, a month ahead of schedule. The company's Ontario Wind Project is on track for completion later this year. The Alberta Clipper project remains on schedule for 2010. It has also helped the stock that the company has been able to raise $1.4 billion from its sale of a 25% interest in Spanish pipeline company Compania Logistica de Hidrocarburos. That's capital that Enbridge doesn't have to raise in today's volatile financial markets. As of Sept. 23, I'm increasing my target price for shares of Enbridge to $48 a share by February 2009 from my prior target of $46 by December 2008. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Enbridge in my personal portfolio.)
|
| Rayonier Inc |
RYN |
11/9/07 |
$46.02000 |
$39.58 |
+$0.09 |
-13.99% |
On Jan. 27, Rayonier (RYN) reported fourth-quarter earnings of 53 cents a share, 5 cents a share above the Wall Street consensus. Revenue climbed 26% from the fourth quarter of 2007 and beat the consensus estimate of $337 million by about $17 million, or 5%. The better-than-expected results didn't come from any big improvement in the company's business but from a one-time sale of 29,000 acres of nonstrategic timberland. Most importantly for investors who are holding these shares for their hefty $2-a-share dividend, cash flow is more than adequate to cover distributions. Cash available for distribution came to $210 million for the year, and dividend distribution came to $157 million. During the year, the company was also able to upgrade its portfolio of timberland by acquiring 110,000 acres in Washington and New York states and selling 50,000 nonstrategic acres at what the company called 'favorable prices.' Looking ahead, though, the company was pessimistic about 2009. Due to a weak economy and an even weaker housing market, revenue and earnings are expected to be below 2008 levels in the company's three major divisions: real estate, timber and performance fibers. Standard & Poor's estimates sales will fall 2% this year. So far in this downturn, Rayonier has been able to avoid panic sales into the very weak real-estate market of its most valuable development land. A strong balance sheet argues that the company will be able to avoid fire sales in 2009 as well. Rayonier has just $122 million in debt coming due in 2009 (on Dec. 31), and the company, besides remaining profitable, still has $144 million on its revolving credit line. Right now it looks like the company will be able to hold on to its most valuable assets through the downturn. As of Feb. 17, in recognition of the depth and ferocity of this recession, I'm cutting my target price on Rayonier to $36 a share by December 2009 from my previous target of $55 by November 2008. As of Feb. 17, the shares paid a yield of 6.8%. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Rayonier in my personal portfolio.)
|
| Thompson Creek Metals Co Inc |
TC |
06/26/07 |
$15.47080 |
$11.52 |
-$0.10 |
-25.54% |
Wait 'til next year. On Feb. 18, Thompson Creek Metals (TC) announced lower production goals that amount to the company saying 2009 is a lost cause. The company said it would cut production in 2009 to 20 million to 24 million pounds of molybdenum. That's a huge step down from previous plans for production of 32.5 million to 34 million pounds. But that's what you do when molybdenum prices have fallen to $9 a pound on the spot market from $32 a pound under long-term contracts that are now resetting. And it's what you can do if you're a company like Thompson Creek, which had $271 million in cash Feb. 9 and just $17 million in debt. Because of its financial strength, Thompson Creek can afford to wait for the price of molybdenum to climb whenever global steel demand recovers, rather than rush molybdenum onto the market at any price to cover its debt. The company's cash balance is also enough to cover capital maintenance and expansion plans totaling $60 million in 2009. Thompson Creek isn't the only -- or even the biggest -- molybdenum producer to take the commodity off the market. Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold, a copper and gold miner that also happens to be the world's biggest producer of molybdenum, has announced production cuts of about 10 million pounds for 2009. Together, the two companies have announced cuts equal to about 5% of global production. That should help stabilize molybdenum prices, although it will take an increase in global steel demand to push prices significantly higher than current levels. I'm not looking for that rise in steel demand until 2010. As of Feb. 20, I'm reducing my target price to $7 a share from the prior $9 a share by December 2009. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Thompson Creek Metals in my personal portfolio.)
|
| Yara International Each Repr 1 ADR |
YARIY |
05/22/07 |
$29.50000 |
$38.75 |
+$1.40 |
31.36% |
Yara International (YARIY) reported that global utilization rates in the nitrogen industry are within 1% to 3% of industry capacity. If that’s accurate, it will take only a small increase in demand to push prices higher. I’m still looking for a general recovery in the fertilizer industry in 2010 -- either by the turn of the year for Potash or by the end of the first quarter for other fertilizers. Yara International hit my target price of $37 a share by September 2010 just a bit early -- in November 2009. As of November 16, 2009, I’m keeping the stock in Jubak’s Picks and raising the target price to $47.20 a share by November 2010. It traded at around $38 Monday. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Yara International in my personal portfolio.)
|
| Maxwell Technologies Inc |
MXWL |
01/23/07 |
$12.55000 |
$17.44 |
+$0.07 |
38.96% |
On September 22, Maxwell Technologies (MXWL) reported that Continental AG, one of the biggest suppliers of electronic and mechanical systems to car makers, had picked Maxwell’s BOOSTCAP ultra capacitors as the energy storage component in a voltage stabilization system it has developed to improve fuel efficiency and reduce emissions by shutting off the engine when a car slows and then restarting it when the driver steps on the gas. Maxwell’s ultra capacitors store electricity to provide power for restarting the engine without overworking the battery. What’s important about the win at Continental is that it’s for a high-volume product in an industry that’s rapidly introducing new technologies to improve mileage. Car makers also face a big tightening of emissions standards as Europe implements its carbon reduction goals. The win at Continental also validates the product and is likely to lead to other wins. Profit margins are likely to rise with production volumes and with the company’s move of some ultra capacitor production from Switzerland to China. As of September 28, I’m setting a new target price of $25 a share by July 2010. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Maxwell Technologies in my personal portfolio.)
|
| Deere & Co |
DE |
01/12/07 |
$49.66500 |
$50.83 |
-$0.06 |
2.35% |
When I picked Deere (DE) for Jubak's Picks on Dec. 11, 2007, it was in a column titled 'How to profit from rising food prices.' A better headline for today might be 'How to survive until food prices start climbing again.' (I'd say we'll see food inflation again in 2010.) Well, Deere is hanging in there, but 2009 isn't going to be a year for the company to crow about. On Feb. 18, it announced fiscal-first-quarter earnings of 48 cents a share, 15 cents below the Wall Street consensus estimate and a 42% drop from the year-ago November-January quarter. Revenue fell just 1.1% to $5.2 billion, however, which was considerably above Wall Street estimates of $4.6 billion. Don't expect much from the rest of 2009, the company told investors. Sales likely will be down about 8% for the fiscal year, including a 6% hit from a stronger dollar in the first and second quarters. The biggest problems are – surprise -- outside the United States. Farm-machinery sales are forecast to be somewhere between flat and up 5% for the year in the U.S. and Canada but down 2% worldwide. Order cancellations were somewhat above normal in South America in the first quarter, but the real problem is in Russia and Central Europe, where economies are rapidly deteriorating. The company is not seeing any problems in North America from the credit crunch because high crop prices have led to strong cash flows for farmers. I don't see Deere facing a collapse in its sales in 2009 or significant balance sheet problems, and the company is well-positioned for a turnaround in 2010. As of Feb. 24, I'm lowering my target price for Deere to $35 a share by December 2009, down from a prior target of $62 a share. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Deere in my personal portfolio.)
|
|
| Company |
Symbol |
Date
Dropped |
Price
Then |
Price
Now |
% Change
Since Dropped |
| Kinross Gold Corp |
KGC |
11/12/09 |
$18.82000 |
$19.14 |
1.70% |
What’s the problem at Kinross Gold (KGC)? Simply, lower production and higher costs. Last quarter, the problems seemed limited to the company’s Paracatu mine in Brazil. But with the November 2nd report Kinross said it is having problems at Paracatu and Fort Knox. The problems at Paracatu, however, are costing the company the most and look hardest to fix. Throughput was running at just 70% of plant design levels in October, and gold recovery is stuck at 74% rather than the target of 80%. Increasing throughput with the existing plant results in a coarser grind of the ore that, in turn, reduces gold recovery. Adding a third ball mill would increase throughput, but that will take until 2010 or 2011. And while gold miners like Goldcorp are seeing rising production and falling costs, Kinross is experiencing exactly the opposite. The company has lowered production guidance to 2.2 million ounces from an earlier, already lowered target of 2.3 million to 2.4 million ounces. As of November 12, 2009, I’m selling Kinross Gold out of Jubak’s Picks with a loss of 16% since I added it to the portfolio on April 4, 2008. (Full disclosure: I will sell Kinross Gold out of my personal portfolio three days after this is posted.)
|
| ONEOK PARTNERS LP |
OKS |
11/10/09 |
$58.03000 |
$56.95 |
-1.86% |
Master limited partnership units of ONEOK Partners (OKS) have run through my target price of $54 a share by March 2010 and just kept on going. I still like this natural gas pipeline play for its yield of 7.5% (as of November 9, 2009), so I’m keeping it in my Dividend Income Portfolio. But I just can’t see more than a couple of bucks more in price appreciation in the next year, and that would limit the total return on these units. So, I’m selling them out of my 12- to 18-month Jubak’s Picks portfolio with a 40% capital gain and interest income of about 8% since I added them to the portfolio on October 7, 2008. (Full disclosure: I will sell my personal position in ONEOK Partners three days after this is posted.)
|
| WR Berkley Capital 6.750% Trust Originated Pref Shs 26/07/20 |
WRB-A |
10/7/09 |
$23.25010 |
$22.65 |
-2.58% |
I’m going to sell W.R. Berkley Preferred (WRB-A) shares out of Jubak’s Picks as of October 7th. They’ve given me what I wanted—a good return and safety -- while the market and economy were at their shakiest. But the reward for staying on board will be limited to the yield -- about 7.2% at the moment -- and I think I can do better while taking on only slightly more risk by moving from these preferred shares to the common stock of insurer W.R. Berkley. I’ll be buying those shares today. I have a 17.5% gain -- 21.6% total return with dividends -- on these preferred shares since I added them to Jubak’s Picks on February 17, 2009. (Full disclosure: I will sell W.R. Berkley Capital Trust Preferred out of my personal portfolio three days after this is posted.)
|
| Enbridge Inc |
ENB |
09/30/09 |
$38.80000 |
$41.32 |
6.49% |
I bought North American oil and gas distributor Enbridge (ENB) for the Picks portfolio back in December 2007 because I thought its 3.6% yield would make the stock price very stable in a tough stock market and that investors looking for safety would bid up the price of these shares. I got half of what I wished for. The stock was very stable, but I didn't get any gain in stock price. Enbridge trades today for roughly the same price I paid for it on December 18, 2007. I am looking at a 6.3% return from the dividends that I collected during the 21 months that I owned the stock. Not terrible, but I had hoped for a higher total return. I'm selling Enbridge out of Jubak's Picks with a return of 6.3% since I added it to the portfolio. (Full disclosure: I own shares of Enbridge Energy Partners in my personal portfolio.)
|
| Exxon Mobil Corp |
XOM |
09/16/09 |
$70.34000 |
$74.38 |
5.74% |
When I added ExxonMobil (XOM) to Jubak’s Picks on December 23, 2008, I thought it was a reasonable way to balance risk and reward. The stock was a good way to reach for some upside return in case the global economy—and oil prices—rebounded more quickly than I expected in 2009, while at the same time using ExxonMobil’s dividend to give me some protection against the risk that oil prices would tumble further.But recently ExxonMobil has also started to lag the rest of the energy sector. Today I’m exiting my position in ExxonMobil so I can redeploy that money into a more offensive-minded energy play. I’ll make that buy later this week. Without dividends my loss on these shares of ExxonMobil since I added them to Jubak’s Picks is 7.18%. With dividends, the loss is 5.53%. (Full disclosure: I will sell my personal position in ExxonMobil three days after this post goes up.)
|
| Fortescue Metals Group Ltd |
FSUMF |
09/24/09 |
$3.41000 |
$3.80 |
11.44% |
I think the short-term commodities cycle has turned. China's buying spree, which fueled a furious commodity rally in the last six months, is, if not over, slowing. China's buying in the second half of the year is likely to be much slower than in the first six months of 2009.Which leads to my decision to take some money off the table in the most volatile commodity stocks. Fortescue Metals Group (FSUMF) certainly fits that description. Although the stock is down 32% from my purchase date on December 19, 2007, it’s up 129% from the March 9, 2009 market bottom. Fortescue is so volatile because it has a double link to China. First, China is the major customer for the iron ore coming out of the company's new mines in Western Australia. Second, China is the major source of capital for the expansion that this company needs to get its cost per ton down and its profitability up. As of September 24, 2009 I'm selling these shares out of my 12- to 18-month Jubak's Picks portfolio. (Full disclosure: I will sell my shares of Fortescue Metals out of my personal portfolio three days after this is posted.)
|
| Joy Global Inc |
JOYG |
09/22/09 |
$49.54000 |
$54.03 |
9.06% |
JoyGLobal (JOYG) has blown through my target price for June 2010 in just two months. Try as I might, I can't juggle the fundamental numbers to come up a reason to raise that target now, so I'm going to sell these shares out of Jubak's Picks. The mining equipment manufacturer did indeed raise its earnings guidance for fiscal 2009 (which ends in October) when it reported third-quarter earnings, but the company also cautioned that fiscal 2010 would be challenging and that revenue and earnings will be lower next year than in fiscal 2009. I like Joy’s long-term story--it's one of the few equipment makers that survived the collapse of its market and can now look forward to decades of growth in the mining industry. But in the short term, I think most of the turn in fiscal 2010 is priced into the stock. I'm selling with a 34.6% gain since I added the shares to Jubak's Picks on July 21st. (Full disclosure: I will sell my shares of Joy Global out of my personal portfolio three days after this post goes up.)
|
| Plum Creek Timber Co Inc |
PCL |
07/15/09 |
$29.95000 |
$34.20 |
14.19% |
Results for Plum Creek Timber (PCL) have been grim lately. But, unfortunately, I don’t think we’ve heard the last of the bad news. In fact the second half of 2009 could bring significant disappointments. So I’m going to take my punishment now and sell these shares with a 30% loss, counting dividends, since I added them to The Jubak’s Picks on November 16, 2007. Here’s the problem. Plum Creek, like every other timber company, is cutting its harvest because it simply can’t sell much lumber into the weak housing market. In the first quarter of 2009 the company reduced harvest of saw logs from its Northern Resources segment by 46% and from its Southern Resources segment by 37% from the levels of the first quarter of 2008. Over all the company cut 550,000 tons from its harvest plan for saw logs from its forecast for 2009. The great thing about timber is that, within reason, trees that aren’t cut one year can be cut the next so Plum Creek isn’t so much writing off value as postponing it. But with every other timber company doing the same thing that industry-wide postponement is building up a big overhang of supply that will hit prices like a ton of bricks as soon as these companies see any signs of returning demand. Saw log prices were already down 15% in the first quarter of the year from the first quarter of 2008 and with this supply overhang I have trouble seeing a second half recovery in prices even if the freefall in home building ends. (Full disclosure: I will sell my personal shares of Plum Creek Timber three days after this column is posted.)
|
| USB Capital VIII |
USB-G |
04/17/09 |
$18.85000 |
$22.62 |
20.00% |
Shares of USB Capital VIII (USB-G) -- what I've called US Bancorp preferred for the sake of simplicity -- have crossed above my $18 target price (for February 2010). I'm going to take my profits here with this strategy in mind. I think we're in the midst of a bottoming process for the stock market. I expect we'll get a reversal of the current rally sometime relatively soon as part of that process. Too many sectors are pressing up against resistance levels (like the 200-day moving average) right now for me to feel that the short-term risk/reward ratio favors risk-taking. Once we get that correction (if we get that correction) and take some of the risk back out, I'll look to put this money to work in the financial sector, quite probably in a common stock with more upside than a preferred issue has. I'm selling this position with a 17% return (including dividend) since I added it to Jubak's Picks on Feb. 10. This will bring my cash position in Jubak's Picks to about 54% of the portfolio. (Full disclosure: I will sell my personal position in USB Capital VIII three days after this column is posted.)
|
| Petroleo Brasileiro ADR Reptg 2 Ord Shs |
PBR |
04/10/09 |
$35.99000 |
$50.06 |
39.09% |
I think the stock market has run way, way ahead of the economy. Too far ahead. Whereas a month ago every bit of news was seen through the darkest glass possible, today everybody is going gaga over the slightest sign that things aren't getting bad as quickly as they were in January. One result has been a strong rally in the price of oil -- the spot price of Brent crude has climbed 25% in a month, for example -- that just isn't justified by the economic data. With everybody from the Federal Reserve to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development getting more pessimistic about when the recovery will arrive (2010 now) and how strong it will be (not very), I think oil prices are due to retrace a good part of that gain. That means oil stocks, especially those that have moved up most strongly, are facing a correction, too. Share of Petrobras (PBR) have climbed 137% since the Nov. 20 market low and 33% since the March 9 low. As much as I like the long-term prospects for Petrobras, I think the process of turning those prospects into oil is going to take so much capital and so much time that right now it's priced into the stock. My target price on these shares is $41 by December, and at a current price near $36 a share, I just don't see the upside in holding right now. So I'm going to sell these shares with an eye on re-establishing a position in the mid-$20s when this rally falters. I'm selling these shares with a 32% loss since I added them to Jubak's Picks in my own excess of enthusiasm on Aug. 26, 2008. (Full disclosure: I will sell my personal position in Petrobras three days after this column is posted.)
|
| Gorman-Rupp Co |
GRC |
03/20/09 |
$18.26000 |
$25.63 |
40.36% |
I still like shares of Gorman-Rupp (USB) for its long-term exposure to the world's growing shortage of water and the need to move more and more of it longer and longer distances. But in the short term -- say, the next quarter or two -- I think Gorman-Rupp is looking at increasing pressure on its hefty order backlog as hard-pressed municipalities cancel contracts. This sell is most definitely a call on the economy -- I think the bottom is at least two quarters away, and visibility is very poor -- and on the stock market. I'm going to take advantage of what I believe is a bear market rally to sell these shares and raise some cash. That way, I'll have more to put into the market when I can see the eventual turn in place. Gorman-Rupp's shares climbed 36% from their March 9 low through the close on March 19. That's a more-than-decent short-term bounce. I'm selling these shares with a 54% loss since I added them to Jubak's Picks on June 24. (Full disclosure: I will sell my personal position in Gorman-Rupp three days after this column is posted.)
|
| US Bancorp (Del) |
USB |
02/20/09 |
$10.58000 |
$23.29 |
120.13% |
I think US Bancorp (USB) is a survivor that will come through the financial crisis with more market share than it went in with. That said, I think the bank is going to have to cut the dividend on its common shares in the not-too-distant future. The market believes that, too, which is why the stock has been in free fall over the past two weeks. So, for safety, I'm selling my common shares in this bank and buying some of the bank's preferred shares. The yield on the preferred is 9.07%, less than the yield on the common, but I think that dividend is a lot safer. I'm selling the common shares out of Jubak's Picks with a loss of 38%, including dividends received, or 62% excluding dividends, since I added the stock to this portfolio April 11, 2008. (Full disclosure: I own shares of US Bancorp common stock in my personal portfolio. I will sell those shares three days after this column is posted.)
|
| JP Morgan Chase ADR Rep 1/4 Share of 5.49% Cumulative Pref S |
JPM-G |
02/13/09 |
$36.85000 |
$44.25 |
20.07% |
The risk in owning shares of JPMorgan Chase (JPM-G) -- even the preferred shares -- has climbed substantially in the last week. In a normal market, I wouldn't sell, but this isn't a normal market. In this bear market, investors punish financial stocks without mercy on even the rumor that a balance sheet is headed for a downgrade, and the capital gains upside for anything in the financial sector just isn't enough to compensate. The yield on the these shares -- 6.54% as of Feb. 12 -- is great but still not enough to compensate for my assessment that risk is climbing for this bank. What are the sources for that climb? First, JPMorgan Chase's exposure to the increasingly likely bankruptcies of General Motors and Chrysler. Banks, including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup, have extended loans totaling $6 billion to GM and $7 to Chrysler. Second, I think the much-reviled financial-sector bailout plan from Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner could have real teeth -- at least as far as bank balance sheets are concerned. Regulators have already sent teams to the 20 biggest banks to stress-test their portfolios. Right now it looks like regulators will apply the stress test to off-balance-sheet portfolios at the banks. No one knows how stringent the test will be or what it will find. I don't find exposure to that kind of potential surprise especially attractive in this market. As of Feb. 13, I'm selling JPMorgan Chase Preferred G out of Jubak's Picks with a 4.8% return, including dividends, since I added it to the portfolio Dec. 19. (Full disclosure: I will sell my personal position in JPMorgan Chase Preferred G three days after this column is posted.)
|
| Goldcorp Inc |
GG |
01/09/09 |
$27.14000 |
$43.64 |
60.80% |
Shares of Goldcorp (CHK) climbed 109% from Oct. 27 to Dec. 31 as the U.S. dollar rally stalled. In 2009, the stock has given back some of those gains, falling from $31.53 a share on Dec. 31 to $27.50 on Jan. 7 as the dollar has started to rally again. I'm anticipating the first half of 2009 will be good to the dollar, as a global flight to safety and the perception that the United States' economy is closer to a turnaround than Europe's will combine to send the dollar higher against currencies such as the euro. So I'm going to take some profits here by selling Goldcorp out of Jubak's Picks for the first half of the year. I anticipate that gold -- as a hedge against a falling dollar and rising inflation -- will do well in the second half of the year but that the dollar's strength in the first six months of 2009 won't be positive for gold. I'm selling these shares with an 84% gain from Oct. 27 to Jan. 7 and a 10% loss from May 30, 2006, when I added the stock to Jubak's Picks, through Jan. 7, 2009. (Full disclosure: I will sell my personal position in Goldcorp three days after this column is posted.)
|
| Chesapeake Energy Corp |
CHK |
01/06/09 |
$19.09000 |
$23.03 |
20.64% |
We're still in a bear market until stocks -- and the economy -- show me otherwise. And in a bear market, when you get handed a rally, you sell. So as much as I like the long-term prospects for Chesapeake Energy (CHK), I'm going to sell the shares out of Jubak's Picks with this column. From Dec. 5 through Jan. 6, the shares gained 38%. I don't think that gain will hold: We're headed into the weak shoulder period for natural gas between the winter heating season and the summer cooling season. The U.S. economy continues to stumble along with manufacturers reporting low levels of capacity utilization. That's not good for natural-gas prices. And I think we're still at least nine months away from a bottom in global energy demand. I'd love to buy Chesapeake back later in 2009, but I'm going to take what the bear market has given me in a belief that a true energy rally is quarters away. I'm selling these shares with a 66% loss as of Jan. 6 from my April 22, 2008, purchase price of $53.68. This sell will leave Jubak's Picks 48% in cash as of Jan. 6. (Full disclosure: I will sell shares of Chesapeake Energy out of my personal portfolio three days after this column is posted.)
|
| Devon Energy Corp |
DVN |
12/23/08 |
$63.02000 |
$67.50 |
7.11% |
I hate to do this. In my opinion, for the long term, Devon (Devon) has one of the best production and development pipelines in the oil industry. I would want to hold this stock for five years or more -- once we get past 2009. But 2009, especially the first half of 2009, will be a train wreck for most exploration and production companies. Without the big refining and marketing businesses of the integrated majors such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil to act as a buffer, these companies are exposed to the full force of falling oil prices. And though oil prices, which are down by more than $100 a barrel as of mid-December from their July high at $148, can't tumble another $100 a barrel, the effect of lower oil prices on company earnings is still working its way into earnings reports as hedges that had protected oil and gas producers from the worst of the decline expire with 2008. I haven't been able to find a single oil or natural-gas producer that has a higher percentage of production hedged against price declines in 2009 than it had in 2007. In the short term, the industry is also headed into February and March, when oil demand drops even without a global slowdown. And oil is building up to record levels in storage tanks; oil in storage at the Cushing, Okla., hub, for example, has climbed in 11 of the past 12 weeks, to the highest level since May 2007. That means there's plenty of oil around to keep oil prices stuck at current low levels for a while despite any uptick in demand or any reduction in supply from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. So I'm selling exploration and production company Devon Energy out of Jubak's Picks with this column. I have every intention of buying the shares back in six months at what I hope will be a lower price. The shares have gained 10% since I added them to the portfolio on July 18, 2006. (Full disclosure: I will sell the shares of Devon I hold in my personal portfolio three days after this column is posted.)
|
| Ultra Petroleum Corp |
UPL |
12/23/08 |
$32.23000 |
$46.05 |
42.88% |
What goes for oil exploration and production companies applies in spades to domestic natural-gas exploration and production companies such as Ultra Petroleum (UPL). I think gas prices in the United States aren't likely to recover markedly in the next six to nine months and could fall even further as slowing U.S. economic growth cuts into industrial demand. And, like oil producers, most natural-gas producers will feel more pain from low prices in 2009 than they did in 2008, thanks to reduced hedging in 2009 compared with 2008. Longer term, I continue to like Ultra. The company is one of the lowest-cost producers of natural gas in the United States, and its leases in promising natural-gas shale formations in the Rocky Mountain region put years of earnings growth ahead of the company. Once we get past the earnings pain of 2009. I'm selling Ultra out of Jubak's Picks with a 43% loss since I added it to the portfolio on Sept. 21, 2007. (Full disclosure: I will sell the shares of Ultra I hold in my personal portfolio three days after this column is posted.)
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