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Posted 7/30/99
Jubak's Picks Check out Jim's top stocks for the next 12 months. 50 Best Stocks Today See Jim's list of the 50 best stocks in the world for the long term. Future Fantastic 50 Stocks See Jim's reader-assisted Future Fantastic 50 portfolio. |
Jubak's Journal Votes are in! See the Future Fantastic 50 stocks Nearly 12,000 reader votes have been cast and counted. Here's the portfolio of companies you and I think will shine in five years -- and five more years beyond that. By Jim Jubak What stocks would you want in your portfolio in 2004? The folks who read this column voted for Cisco Systems (CSCO, news, msgs), Qualcomm (QCOM, news, msgs), E*Trade (EGRP, news, msgs) and JDS Uniphase (JDSU, news, msgs). But they gave a thumbs-down to CBS Corp. (CBS, news, msgs), Bell Atlantic (BEL, news, msgs) and Nike (NKE, news, msgs). Yes, the votes are in and, finally, counted for the portfolio that I named the Future Fantastic 50. (Hey, nobody sent in a better name!) About 2,500 readers cast almost 12,000 votes -- the rules allowed each voter to select up to 10 stocks. The goal, as I wrote in my July 16 column ("Join in! Build the list of 50 future winners"), was to come up with a list of stocks that would pass this simple test: If you were to look at the list in July 2004, you'd say about each entry: "Boy, I wish I'd have bought that five years ago, and I'd sure be willing to hold it for another five years." I'm pretty sure that no one will agree with the vote totals for every stock. I certainly don't. Should Charles Schwab (SCH, news, msgs) really have garnered only 87 votes when Home Depot (HD, news, msgs) pulled in 113? Is Nokia (NOK.A, news, msgs), with 126 votes, almost twice as good a long-term pick as Motorola (MOT, news, msgs), with 64 votes? I'm certain that any portfolio you put together won't agree exactly with this list. As you'll see later in this column, the Future Fantastic 50 portfolio that I'll begin tracking with this column doesn't match the vote totals exactly, either. (See the vote totals for all 212 stocks that gathered five or more votes in this Excel spreadsheet (40Kb).) Finding stocks I might have missed But the vote achieved exactly what I hoped for. I added more than 20 stocks to my Future Fantastic 50 portfolio that I otherwise might have missed. No individual can hope to know every stock on the market, and any portfolio put together by just a single investor is bound to miss a basket of potential first-class opportunities. That's why, when I decided to put together a more-aggressive version of the blue chips in my 50 Best Stocks in the World, I asked for your help in finding the 50 best blue chips of 2004. Here's my take on how I'd put that list together, after seeing your choices. In that July 16 column, I started this effort with a list of 30 stocks that I thought should make the cut. (You can find the original 30 in that earlier column.) We agreed on most of those; 24 of my 30 were among the 50 stocks that got the most votes from you. Those top vote-getters included MSN MoneyCentral publisher Microsoft (MSFT, news, msgs), which came in No. 1 with 626 votes, America Online (AOL, news, msgs) at No. 4, Broadcom (BRCM, news, msgs) at No. 13, Yahoo! (YHOO, news, msgs) at No. 14 and Sun Microsystems (SUNW, news, msgs) at No. 19. Two of the stocks I suggested, Sealed Air (SEE, news, msgs) and TSI International (TSFW, news, msgs), got no votes from you. Sealed Air, in fact, got one negative vote from a reader who thought it belonged on the more-conservative 50 Best Stocks in the World list, but not in this more-aggressive portfolio. Jogged by the vote, I've decided to drop these two. | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Future Fantastic 50 Stocks American Int. Grp. (AIG, news, msgs) America Online (AOL, news, msgs) Applied Materials (AMAT, news, msgs) Amgen (AMGN, news, msgs) AT&T (T, news, msgs) Broadcom (BRCM, news, msgs) Charles Schwab (SCH, news, msgs) Cisco Systems (CSCO, news, msgs) Citigroup (C, news, msgs) Coca-Cola (KO, news, msgs) Dell Computer (DELL, news, msgs) EMC (EMC, news, msgs) Enron (ENE, news, msgs) E*Trade (EGRP, news, msgs) Excite@Home (ATHM, news, msgs) Exodus Comm. (EXDS, news, msgs) General Electric (GE, news, msgs) Globalstar Tele. (GSTRF, news, msgs) Home Depot (HD, news, msgs) IBM (IBM, news, msgs) Inktomi (INKT, news, msgs) Intel (INTC, news, msgs) JDS Uniphase (JDSU, news, msgs) Level 3 Comm. (LVLT, news, msgs) Loral (LOR, news, msgs) Lucent (LU, news, msgs) MCI WorldCom (WCOM, news, msgs) Medtronic (MDT, news, msgs) Metricom (MCOM, news, msgs) Metromedia (MFNX, news, msgs) Microsoft (MSFT, news, msgs) Net. Appliance (NTAP, news, msgs) Nokia (NOK, news, msgs) Oracle (ORCL, news, msgs) Pfizer (PFE, news, msgs) PMC-Sierra (PMCS, news, msgs) Qlogic (QLGC, news, msgs) Qualcomm (QCOM, news, msgs) RealNetworks (RNWK, news, msgs) RF Micro (RFMD, news, msgs) Solectron (SLR, news, msgs) Sony (SNE, news, msgs) Sun Micro. (SUNW, news, msgs) Texas Instruments (TXN, news, msgs) VISX (VISX, news, msgs) Vitesse Semi. (VTSS, news, msgs) Wal-Mart (WMT, news, msgs) Walt Disney (DIS, news, msgs) Wind River (WIND, news, msgs) Yahoo! (YHOO, news, msgs) |
I'd still like to own 'em On four others, RealNetworks (RNWK, news, msgs) at No. 56 in the readers' poll, Network Appliance (NTAP, news, msgs) at No. 67, RF Micro Devices (RFMD, news, msgs) at No. 69 and American International Group (AIG, news, msgs) at No. 77, I respectfully disagree. I still think these are four stocks that belong among the 50 I'd most like to own for the next 10 years. That leaves me with 28 of the original 30, and with 22 slots to fill in the Future Fantastic 50. Here are a dozen choices from among the 26 stocks that made your top 50 but weren't on my original list.
I'm going to fill the last 10 slots in the portfolio with stocks that didn't score terribly high, but where a reader's argument for the stock seemed especially powerful. Here they are, along with the gist of the argument: | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Jubak's Archives Recent Jubak articles: • How to put a value on cyclical stocks, 7/27/99 • Dear stock, what have you done for me lately?, 7/23/99 • Join in! Build the list of 50 future winners, 7/16/99 More… |
I'm not saying I'd buy them now As is true of the 50 Best Stocks in the World, I don't necessarily recommend purchase of any of these stocks at the moment. Some are very expensive and most are extremely volatile. Buy on the dips or dollar-cost average over time to build positions. I'll try to update this portfolio quarterly, and I'll try to note a few of the 50 that are reasonable buys at the time of the update. You've probably noted that there were 14 stocks that voters rated among their top 50 that I have left off this portfolio. I think some of these stocks are too far down the growth curve; others are too unproved for me. But, as I said at the beginning of this column, reasonable investors are likely to differ. In my next column, I'll update the 50 Best Stocks in the World list and take a look at Walt Disney (DIS, news, msgs) and Coca-Cola (KO, news, msgs), two stocks from that list that have fallen on tough times. And I'll try to explain why those stocks are in the Future Fantastic 50, even though a number of you suggested dumping them. And finally, once again, thank you all for voting. I appreciate the thought and care that went into your selections, even though counting them was exhausting and I'm now going on vacation for a week. My next column will appear Aug. 6. Links Discuss It E-mail Jim Jubak E-mail the Editors Product Support
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